The Assumption Ledger
What you know vs what you hope
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Ventures & Intelligence
Use this to separate facts from wishes before you set direction.
1. The Claim
Write the statement driving the decision in one sentence.
2. Evidence
List what you have actually seen or measured. If it is a belief, label it as such.
3. Cost of Being Wrong
State the operational cost of this being false in plain terms: time, money, or reputational damage.
4. Smallest Test
Define the smallest action that would change your confidence inside two weeks.
Rule
If you cannot name a test, you do not have a decision yet.
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